基于Copula的部件相依并联系统可靠性分析

应用Copula函数,研究了部件相依的并联系统可靠性问题,给出了F-G-M Copula函数下并联系统的可靠度、平均寿命、失效率的表达式,讨论了部件下象限相关下并联系统的平均寿命与部件独立时系统的平均寿命的关系,通过算例分析了部件个数与部件相依关系对系统平均寿命的影响。     

A meshless method based on boundary integral equations and radial basis functions for biharmonic-type problems

This paper presents a meshless method, which replaces the inhomogeneous biharmonic equation by two Poisson equations in terms of an intermediate function. The solution of the Poisson equation with the intermediate function as the right-hand term may be written as a sum of a particular solution and a homogeneous solution of a Laplace equation. The intermediate function is approximated by a series of radial basis functions. Then the particular solution is obtained via employing Kansa’s method, while the homogeneous solution is approximated by using the boundary radial point interpolation method by means of boundary integral equations. Besides, the proposed meshless method, in conjunction with the analog equation method, is further developed for solving generalized biharmonic-type problems. Some numerical tests illustrate the efficiency of the method proposed.     

Efficient versus inefficient hedging strategies in the presence of financial and longevity (value at) risk

This paper provides a closed-form Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the net exposure of an annuity provider, taking into account both mortality and interest-rate risk, on both assets and liabilities. It builds a classical risk-return frontier and shows that hedging strategies–such as the transfer of longevity risk–may increase the overall risk while decreasing expected returns, thus resulting in inefficient outcomes. Once calibrated to the 2010 UK longevity and bond market, the model gives conditions under which hedging policies become inefficient.     

Milling assisted synthesis of calcium zirconate СаZrО3

Monophase calcium zirconate (CaZrO₃) has been prepared from the equimolar ZrO₂ + CaCO₃ mixture by two-step synthesis process. In the first step, mechanical treatment of the mixture is performed in an AGO-2 planetary ball mill. In the second step, the milled mixture is annealed to form calcium zirconate. High-energy ball milling of the (ZrO₂+CaCO₃) mixture results in decrease in the temperature of CaZrO₃ formation during annealing at 950 °C. The enhancement of CaZrO₃ synthesis is due to accumulation of excess energy by the reagents, decreasing the particle size and notable increase in the interphase area because of “smearing” of CaCO₃ on ZrO₂ particles during milling. Nanocrystalline calcium zirconate has been produced by controlling the annealing temperature and time.     

中红外光谱技术在浓香型白酒原酒关键指标分析中的应用

基于中红外光谱分析技术对浓香型白酒原酒中总酸及己酸乙酯的关键指标含量进行检测分析，采用标准正态变换（SNV）方法对数据进行预处理，结合组合间隔偏最小二乘波段选择法（SiPLS）及遗传算法（GA）对各指标的特征吸收波长进行筛选，最终采用偏最小二乘法（PLS）建立分析模型，通过决定系数R2、预测标准偏差（RMSEP）、性能和标准差之比（RPD）以及实际生产的独立测试样品对所建模型效果进行评价，探索中红外光谱分析技术结合波段筛选用于白酒原酒关键指标的定量分析效果。结果表明：采用中红外全光谱397~4 000 cm-1波段所建模型效果并不理想，总酸及己酸乙酯模型的RMSEP值分别达到0.156及0.981，R2仅有0.666及0.453，RPD值为1.731及1.213，代表模型整体的相关拟合效果并不理想，预测误差较大，无法应用于实际生产。而采用GA在SiPLS波段优化基础上进一步进行特征变量筛选后，所建模型效果有了非常显著的提升，总酸及己酸乙酯两项指标的GA-SiPLS模型均体现出了较高的预测精度，R2分别提升到了0.993及0.997，RMSEP值分别降低到0.023及0.077，RPD值提升至11.739及15.455，变量数也分别从935个降低到55及40个，在保留关键信息变量，体现原酒中总酸及己酸乙酯指标特征吸收的同时，有效减轻了模型的复杂程度，同时提高了模型运算速度及预测效果，充分体现了波段筛选对于中红外光谱分析技术应用于白酒原酒关键指标定量分析的重要性，也说明了中红外光谱技术结合波段筛选在白酒品质控制及原酒成分分析中的巨大潜力。考虑到白酒成分复杂，大部分关键品质指标含量相对较低，而中红外吸收区域的基频吸收强度具有比倍频、合频吸收强数十倍的特点，中红外光谱可能比其余光谱技术更适用于白酒液体样品的快速分析，为白酒酿造过程的品质控制提供技术借鉴，同时为酒类品质的快速分析方法开拓提供新的思路。     

A delayed computer virus propagation model and its dynamics

In this paper, we propose a delayed computer virus propagation model and study its dynamic behaviors. First, we give the threshold value R₀ determining whether the virus dies out completely. Second, we study the local asymptotic stability of the equilibria of this model and it is found that, depending on the time delays, a Hopf bifurcation may occur in the model. Next, we prove that, if R₀ = 1, the virus-free equilibrium is globally attractive; and when R₀ < 1, it is globally asymptotically stable. Finally, a sufficient criterion for the global stability of the virus equilibrium is obtained.     

工质及材料对基于AMTEC多孔芯蒸发器性能的影响

以基于AMTEC的碟式太阳能热发电系统的毛细抽吸两相回路多孔芯蒸发器为对象,建立轴对称恒温相变模型,研究了分别以钠、钾、钠钾合金为工质时的毛细多孔芯及液体通道内压力、速度和温度分布,以及多孔芯材料分别为高温陶瓷、不锈钢、镍时的蒸发器内热质传输特性。结果表明,以钠钾合金为工质的多孔芯内表面温度要明显低于钠和钾;以高温陶瓷为多孔芯材料时,多孔芯内表面温度最低,使用镍为多孔芯材料时,内表面温度最高。     

覆冰四分裂导线动态气动系数风洞试验

覆冰导线舞动是由这些导线的气动不稳定性引起的。由于导线动态空气动力特性不同于静态气动系数,本文针对新月形冰形制作了覆冰四分裂导线模型,通过风洞试验动态测试的装置设定可测量不同扭转频率下的空气动力系数。风洞试验得到了不同扭转运动频率、风速和覆冰厚度等关键工况下新月形覆冰四分裂导线的动态空气动力系数。风洞试验结果显示,动态气动系数与静态气动系数存在显著差异。不同于静态气动系数,动态气动系数曲线是环形的,多种参数对气动系数影响明显。结果表明,风洞试验结果为覆冰分裂导线运动研究及其防治技术提供了必要的数据。     

计入油膜惯性作用椭圆接触弹流润滑性能研究

基于计入惯性项的Navier-Stokes方程和连续性方程，建立了计入油膜惯性作用的椭圆接触弹性流体润滑模型，研究了油膜惯性对椭圆接触弹流润滑性能的影响. 弹性变形通过快速傅里叶变换(FFT)计算，而油膜压力通过复合直接迭代法求解. 数值结果表明:在计入油膜惯性作用后，润滑膜的二次压力峰增大，入口区的油膜速度减小，且逆流区范围扩大；考虑油膜惯性作用后油膜厚度有所增大，当载荷从300 N增加到700 N时，中心膜厚最大增加了5.14%. 试验结果也表明，考虑油膜惯性作用后的中心膜厚数值解与试验结果更加接近.      

丁腈橡胶紫外线臭氧照射亲水改性及其水润滑性能研究

以丁腈橡胶为基底，采用紫外线-臭氧照射进行亲水/超亲水表面改性，通过接触角测量仪、光学显微镜对亲水改性表面的接触角、接触角滞后和微观形貌等特性进行表征，分析了表面亲水性的改性机理，并采用MFT-5000型摩擦磨损试验机测试了丁腈橡胶亲水表面的机械耐久性和保持性. 研究结果表明:采用紫外线臭氧照射丁腈橡胶10 min，就能得到完全润湿的超亲水表面，且在紫外线臭氧照射下，丁腈橡胶与臭氧发生反应生成氧化膜，使亲水改性后的丁腈橡胶，在干摩擦和水润滑状态下均表现出较小的摩擦系数和较好的耐磨性